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The developed world is on the brink of a financial, economic, social and political crisis

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Donald Amstad from Aberdeen Standard Investments delivers a sobering assessment on the state of developed market economies.
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Developed economies are at a crisis point, the powers of unconventional monetary policy are exhausted, and markets are just beginning to wake up to this. That’s the sobering assessment on the current state of the global economy delivered by Donald Amstad from Aberdeen Standard Investments
His view is that when developed markets finally crack, there will be serious implications for every asset class and economy. However, those economies where monetary policy remains relatively ‘normal’ will be those best placed to respond. In his view, the emerging markets have more levers to pull when compared to developed markets, where the money printing taps have been turned on and interest rate settings are near zero.
The irony is that during the Asian crisis it was the IMF and central bankers from developed markets that convinced the emerging market governments not to print money and ‘take their medicine.’ Amstad says that this was a cathartic process for these economies, and they are now looking on in bewilderment as the West has resorts to money printing of an unprecedented scale.
“In the emerging world, economic and monetary policy is broadly orthodox. It is the West that is running unorthodox economic and monetary policy and it is the West, ironically, that is now on the cliff edge.”
Implications for investors
Amstad says that unconventional monetary policy has been pushed to the limit and that negative yielding bonds are playing havoc with pension funds and with the profitability of banks and other financial institutions. He highlights that while the United States is awash with debt, it is the $125 trillion of unfunded government liabilities that is most concerning.
Furthermore, he says that investors are faced with a scenario where the key defensive or ‘risk-free’ asset in their portfolios appears to be in a bubble. Historically, it has been riskier asset classes that have been the source of financial malaise. For example, it was credit markets in 2007, tech stocks in 2000 and equities in 1987. However, during these periods' bonds have acted as a buffer for balanced portfolios, Amstad questions if this will be the case today.
“What we have never had to cope with before is if there is a bubble in the risk-free asset class. What happens when that goes pop. What is the new risk free?”
Social implications
Central banks have been playing a game of ‘whack-a-mole', using monetary policy tools to quash any flare up in volatility. Under this regime it has been the wealthiest 0.1 per cent of the world population that has benefited from asset price inflation. Amstad argues that we are already seeing financial and economic troubles becoming political and social flare ups.
He expects that these social tensions will only continue to escalate if developed world policy makers are unwilling to take their medicine.
“If they do come out with another bout of QE then banks are going to go bust, pension funds are going to go bust, insurance companies are going to go bust. And if it pushes the stock market back up again, then the 99.9% are probably not going to tolerate more handouts. That leads to social and political instability.”
Watch the full video below for a sobering assessment on the state of developed market economies and the implications for investors.
"I am very worried about the West. I think it is verging on catastrophe and what is interesting of course is the markets are just beginning to wake up to this."
For all the latest insights from Australia's leading Fund Manager's sign up to Livewire for free at www.livewiremarkets.com

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27 Ago 2019

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Comentários 80
Julian Schecter
Julian Schecter 13 dias atrás
WOW!!!! What an educational, informing, and disturbing video on the fate of Western civilization. Oh well, nobody stays on top forever. The best we can do is take measures to prepare for the upcoming collapse. Anyway, I look forward to seeing more of your videos! You just earned a new subscriber! :)
sinjin K
sinjin K 14 dias atrás
147 Trillion and rising.
youtube account
youtube account 17 dias atrás
and now in 2020 ...
Arly Argueta
Arly Argueta 24 dias atrás
Lol
tom mckee
tom mckee 25 dias atrás
China is a totalitarian state. This guy is clearly a leftist apologist.
jackson ayres
jackson ayres 25 dias atrás
insert "pandemic" people that pay attention saw all this shit a while ago. 2020 its only just begun.
Imperial0666
Imperial0666 17 dias atrás
I didn't see a pandemic coming but I knew the economy was fake and was bound to fall. most people living paycheck-to-paycheck struggling to keep up with the inflated cost of living. businesses big and small weren't in much better shape and all it took was a month to bankrupt them. There's homelessness everywhere. That was such a great economy that we had. LMAO.
Doctor Euge
Doctor Euge 26 dias atrás
Financial, economic, social, political crisis. Like most commentators you can’t see the forest for the tree the adjective you need is moral . The only thing no boomer wants to admit , 50 years of greed and fornication. A morality crisis has brought us here but let’s talk about figures and numbers instead.
jockeye
jockeye Mês atrás
We are in this deep hole because of policies of the FedChair, undermined by party in power. The last Fed Chair that did an honest job was Volker. Greenspan started the debt carnage by lowering interest rate whenever an overheated market badly needed to correct itself. Incredibly, Wall St. JOurnal rates FedChair by market performance, rather than by market sand economic tability. So yes, we are all screwed by making the FedChair a primary tool for winning the next election. Amstad is a lone voice, surrounded by unsatiable greed of those in power..
Andrew Ostrom
Andrew Ostrom Mês atrás
I’d love to know where he thinks we are now.
Peter D
Peter D Mês atrás
Hope your mum is doing OK, her economising doesn't seem so silly now, eh?
Armando Mercado
Armando Mercado Mês atrás
Late April 2020, the Feds increased their balance sheet to $6.6T, they hold $3.9T in treasury bills, the 10 year rate for T-bills is 0.613%, and the president says taking household cleaning products internally to treat CoVID is an idea worth checking out. I'd say the decline is well underway.
Gwinyai Dhliwayo
Gwinyai Dhliwayo Mês atrás
Who Is Watching This Since COVID-19 LockDown1!$
familyvid1
familyvid1 Mês atrás
Good God. Another liberal European Hack. Debt was under "Trump". You're under attack if you are a minority..blah,blah,blah. I have not gotten positions because I am not a minority. The one under attack is the white male. The days of getting jobs, education, special free programs are no longer based on merit. I worked my ass off, took risks, and served my country to get where I am. What's racists is assuming that if your a white male you were born with a silver spoon in your mouth. Oh, and no one lives off the interest in their bank account EVER. When is the last time your bank account paid over 1%? That's 2% under inflation. Very dramatic ole chap.
S G
S G Mês atrás
The only way the us can get out of this is to increase the value of the gold reserves they have.so gold would be valued at a value that covered all liabilities and debt. Gold at us$ 20 000 oz minimum.
woodstock
woodstock Mês atrás
so create a pandemic to bring it all under control. have a great day people.
Matt
Matt Mês atrás
correction: its the straight white males that are under attack.
Ant Poo
Ant Poo Mês atrás
I would love to hear his opinion on current events.
ik more
ik more 3 dias atrás
100 percent still valid!
Andre
Andre Mês atrás
just invest in 3rd world. China is taking over Africa. Capital needs new markets, always!
Michael Murphy
Michael Murphy Mês atrás
Physical gold and silver might just be what it takes to save your arse.
Flyin Kiwi
Flyin Kiwi 2 meses atrás
He didn't foresee just how much toilet paper would be worth in just 7 months time
Michael Rupp
Michael Rupp 2 meses atrás
So, blacks and browns, yellow, women, and gays are under attack in America. It is the Democrats that create the different classes of people. If anyone is under attack it is the middle age whites and Christians.
J
J 2 meses atrás
Anyone seeing this in 2020?
J
J 2 meses atrás
Typical western countries
Anthony Thomas
Anthony Thomas 2 meses atrás
from this talk market was up 30 percent..Great call. NOT!
Anthony Thomas
Anthony Thomas 2 meses atrás
Chinese government does not report their debt buddy.
Anthony Thomas
Anthony Thomas 2 meses atrás
YOU WERE WRONG BOZO
Mark Staddon
Mark Staddon 2 meses atrás
Your not my cup of tea with the right amount of sugar
Charles Foster
Charles Foster 2 meses atrás
4:50 "We've already got massively expanded central bank balance sheets". Jay Powell: "Hold my beer"
ReCycle Spinning
ReCycle Spinning 2 meses atrás
As well it should be, I am surprised has not crashed before. We pollute like maniacs, we use mother earth like our personal supply house , take. Take take.,
pillmuncher67
pillmuncher67 2 meses atrás
Sir, you made me cry. Those poor bankers really deserve our compassion.
Valentine Smith
Valentine Smith 2 meses atrás
Well, coronavirus panic plus oil price war was the Everything Pin. Reminded of this, when I told friends: The "Everything bubble" has been screaming into red-light-flashing warning mode for at least the last few months. The "everything bubble" in "the economy" was due to blow. So along comes the sudden "oil price war" (that was either Saudis Vs Russia or the Russians Vs US shale) at the same time the virus officially goes viral. If you want a "whodunit" interpretation it may be that the DELAY in recognizing the "pandemic" was so people could do some stock-ownership adjusting. A pandemic is the perfect cover for WHY the stock market tanks, as it is easy to blame to shut-down of the ENTIRE economy, not just the usual fraudsters doing what they do. And a huge "cui bono" is the "response" by the Fed, feeding MASSIVE amounts of "liquidity" to the top of the finance pyramid.... And then, on top of that, the law-makers vote a "stimulus" package of massive amounts of free money to the wealthy (while throwing a pittance at the people on the bottom, to make it look like they care). Then the Fed (if they haven't done so already) will toss more GARBAGE (Toxic assets) into the bag of crap they've bought up to protect the "too big to fail" Money guys, which they've been itching to do for months. So there's a massive profit motive....
Konii
Konii 2 meses atrás
How fitting.
mike arasta
mike arasta 2 meses atrás
March 2020. Happening!
AlexanderThePup
AlexanderThePup 2 meses atrás
We’re one week into isolation and my family is about to fall apart.
Kased
Kased 2 meses atrás
when he says west does he mean like the usa, canada, mexica ect, or like west usa cali?
Second edition
Second edition 2 meses atrás
He can invest in China if he wants. We buy all their crap
Second edition
Second edition 2 meses atrás
He is promoting communism
Second edition
Second edition 2 meses atrás
Pelosi will be the next president of the US....go figure
Second edition
Second edition 2 meses atrás
He does or says nothing but the obvious and that is it
Rubens KokaZero
Rubens KokaZero 2 meses atrás
The time has come
Prosper Williams
Prosper Williams 2 meses atrás
This man is simply a genius!
Meteor Mekonen
Meteor Mekonen 3 meses atrás
This is anti socialist propaganda
Meteor Mekonen
Meteor Mekonen 3 meses atrás
It’s bull shot anyway why not create a society , where we serve each other . Money only has value because we put value on it
Meteor Mekonen
Meteor Mekonen 3 meses atrás
Bro it’s all bullshit , let’s just start over
bimmer4011
bimmer4011 3 meses atrás
The obvious solution: Let those and any other mismanaged entities fail. Period. Rewarding poor management with bailouts does not address the underlying issues. Only the strong survive, the weak are culled. The central banks are criminals and deserve the short end of a rope.
byza101
byza101 3 meses atrás
Mate I have been saying that for ages. Why the hell can’t our governments see that the way to prosperity is the state owning profit making enterprises. Make money from that, don’t need to get it as much from tax. In Australia one of our previous governments thought they’d be smart and start selling assets to put cash in the bank. One was the Commonwealth Bank, was making $10B in profit a few years ago, the other Qantas, who is making $1B + these days. That’s just a couple, there are more... Government is something like $690B in debt, to who I don’t know but apprently the interest is around $2B a month I’ve heard reported somewhere. Absolute madness, we actually give money to other countries and the only money the government makes is through taxes. It won’t end well.
GGR TheMostGodless
GGR TheMostGodless 3 meses atrás
This is DESCRIPTION of the situation... I didn't hear any SOLUTIONS.
Krist Reid
Krist Reid 3 meses atrás
good news , i would say, amazing news , that would mean the end of 3 rd world invasion to europe and the end of special privileges for non europeans
The Unspoken Scot.
The Unspoken Scot. Mês atrás
You realise this guy is full of shit, if the west collapses the whole world does, every 3rd world country is still gagging for white mans money.
tribulationcoming
tribulationcoming 3 meses atrás
Burning the Field by Marc F. Brocato 2006 The American Cash Cow - ALL BULLS OUT. Back in the old days, before fencing had subdivided and cordoned off the once opened areas of land throughout the south, the farmers and cattlemen of the day would burn off the fields and woodlands. During the summer, vegetation in the forms of grasses, briars, and various shrubs would grow in the open fields and meadows. These plants were a source of nutrition for livestock and a major food supply for the herds which where allowed to roam freely. In the fall of the year, winter would set in and the summer growth cycle would end. With the onset of cold winter weather, the grasses and other vegetation would die, leaving the landscape lifeless and brown. The purpose of burning the woods were twofold. First, the fire had a cleansing effect by clearing the ground of useless and unwanted debris. Secondly, nutrients where returned to the soil, making them available for the next succession of growth. One could look north and south, east and west, and see the numerous columns of smoke rising into the sky. The yearly roundup took place in the fall, at which time the cattle were gathered together. The ranchers collected their ( cash ) cows, some were sold at auction and others where put in places of safe keeping (Euro’s, Swiss franks, Yen, and gold.... ). Not until all the cattle where herded together and relocated were the fields and woods set on fire. This was the economic cycle that reoccurred year after year, a necessary evil of the day and was eventually outlawed.. Thousands of independent ranchers would be replaced by the large cooperate cattle companies. And so it is with food and many other good and services today, from the hands of the thousands who established the market, whatever that market might be, into the hands of the few who now control it. But that’s not the end of this story, it’s far from over. Apply these same principles and methods to the national and global economy. It appears as if the industrialists and financiers who control the economies of the world have been moving their cash cows out of the U.S. .for a long time in advance of a controlled burn or just maybe wildfire. The crash of the ‘30's was such an action, however, every major market on the face of the earth will be effected this go round. A well planned choreography of events will reshape the global economy in ways which the average individual cannot comprehend. When the fires are out and the smoke clears, the result will be an empty shell of a country, with an economic landscape barren and ready for the next season of growth. Enjoy your freedom and rights, savor them as you would your favorite meal. Life in the United States and the entire civilized world shall soon go through quiet a transition. Similar circumstances have overtaken unsuspecting populations in the past, but never the entire world, as it will this time. What shall be used as the form of ignition? Will it be a manipulated economic disaster, or some fabricated terrorist act. Perhaps a bonafide and unexpected act of God that was not a part of man’s planning. Maybe those in Washington will legislate the country out of existence by executive order, it’s amusing to think a thing like that is possible. Imagine, a economic system with no exchange rate, a global unit of currency. One currency and one governing authority. The surest way to prevent seditions is to take away the matter of them; for if there be fuel prepared, it is hard to tell whence the spark shall come that shall set it on fire. - Bacon.
dudleyserious1
dudleyserious1 3 meses atrás
He makes some good points but I think he doesnt explain his conclusions very well. EG If the BBB market goes to BB wont the central bank by up the BB at BBB prices? They bought all kinds of assets in 2008 at par no questions asked seemingly.
Surin Jairam
Surin Jairam 4 meses atrás
Odd, our economy in the Netherlands is doing quite well, and also rated as very well and stable.
Repent & Believe
Repent & Believe 4 meses atrás
gay is not an ethnic minority. stop it already
Fashion3K- True Style Never Dies!
So true www.fashion3k.com
Dave Le Valley
Dave Le Valley 4 meses atrás
Well.............I think I will just go outside and find a railway track and rest my head.
Tim A
Tim A 4 meses atrás
So what's yr solution other than blaming racist whitey? The business cycle is done, no kidding,
SWAN 3
SWAN 3 4 meses atrás
Listen to this man...He is right on. USA and Canada always follows Europe. It's hitting Canada now and the USA is next. Trumps DeRegulations are a nightmare for interest rates and that affect people like your Grandmother and the rest of us. Treasury is going to increase interest rates eventually and that will take property owners out like 2008. It's coming. The only people making money 2016-2020 are the rich like Trump. The big question where do I hide my bank account money before it disappears from my bank account. Time to find a vault to hide our cash with interests rates heading to zero.
Krist Reid
Krist Reid 3 meses atrás
i have maybe 30% of my money in my bank account and 70 % of my money i keep in a box, 1993-94 we lost alot because we didnt take it out
Esoteric33
Esoteric33 4 meses atrás
I think he could have said this 5-6 minutes
WIlfred Cryptic
WIlfred Cryptic 4 meses atrás
Good New!!! Earn over 1 BTC on www,bitcrooner,com. I've made over 2 BTC on the platform. You can trust it 100%
Great American
Great American 4 meses atrás
Fuck the crown
Foxy-CAM TV
Foxy-CAM TV 4 meses atrás
Wow...an economist self reflecting a little bit...only a little bit...this system is going down and simple traditional living and trade is coming...if..we survive the anger of Earth.
Tyler Sudden II
Tyler Sudden II 4 meses atrás
They take you to war when all else fails.
Karlstens
Karlstens 4 meses atrás
Money is make believe, just like God, unicorns and red heads.
Sambo Mambo JamboTango
Sambo Mambo JamboTango 4 meses atrás
Debt Jubilee is the answer, if the Elite agree to take massive hair cut ; then re-start the new system. The Elite have gained their gains from millennia of enslaving their fellow man anyway. It's now time to Balance the Scales.
david rosales
david rosales 4 meses atrás
I truly believe that this guy's working for China. Trying is not transparent in any which way. If you were going to invest in China how would you know you'll get your investment back if the country is not transparent.why China is profitable profitable only to China not to other people the products are extremely lousy the cities they build or for shell there's a lot of negative negativity in that country. And also what troubles me about this guy is that I seen this guy in the movie before can't figure out which one it is but I seen him in a movie before!!!!!.....
Robert Wolter
Robert Wolter 4 meses atrás
0
James Ginn
James Ginn 4 meses atrás
No one is under attack in the US like white males are.
Krist Reid
Krist Reid 3 meses atrás
he is a globalist
James Ginn
James Ginn 4 meses atrás
So how close is Australia to the abyss ?
the SantasWS
the SantasWS 4 meses atrás
Just don't look down you may realise your already in freefall you just not hit the ground yet.
Jonny five
Jonny five 4 meses atrás
"The Chinese government is solvent" lol....look at this dood
ik more
ik more 3 dias atrás
Don't worry about government debt. Government debt is nothing and it's necessary. What you look at to scale the future is private debt. When it's getting to almost 90 percent there is a problem...
tyler durden
tyler durden 3 meses atrás
the chinese people are solvent, they have more savings than we have. the Chinese gov is in debt
Le DiceThrower
Le DiceThrower 5 meses atrás
This is a video about a billionaire baby boomer explaining why the house you inherited from him smells like shit after him spending 30 years shitting all over the floor while eating wild salmon at 5 dollars per kilo
Robert Phelan
Robert Phelan 5 meses atrás
Globalist,hates nationalism and being proud of your country,move to china and stfu
Brian De Mint
Brian De Mint 5 meses atrás
Gays, black and brown people are under attack in the US? How so? Inexcusable to say fear-mongering cliches like this. Some of his fiscal points are entirely accurate but that line was a very ignorant, misinformed or just lie of a statement.
Krist Reid
Krist Reid 3 meses atrás
only white nationalists and conservatives are under attack
Sami Louati
Sami Louati 5 meses atrás
Complete rubbish analysis on so many levels.
Mark Louthan
Mark Louthan 5 meses atrás
This guy sounds like he is trying to make an excuse for his ''Elite Handlers'' and their end product of a Bankrupt and failed System...rather then just tell us the truth.
Will Stevens
Will Stevens 5 meses atrás
At 13:50 he discredited everything he said prior and anything he says in the future. What a load of leftist BS. The only group of people that are under attack is whites.
Wazz_Bree Wipple
Wazz_Bree Wipple 5 meses atrás
. . . . and this boys and girls is why bitcoin and Ethereum and XRP were invented . . . . . . . .
Yan G
Yan G 5 meses atrás
The answer is anarco capitalism. government mechanisms are a parasite on the economy and a giant hazard of externalities as politicians make arbitrary decisions with no profit or consumer choice to tell them what works and what doesnt. Its a hodge podge of populism and special interest controlling a body with a monopoly over rule making and regulation.
Matt James
Matt James 5 meses atrás
i was enjoying this video until.. oh.. about the 14 minute mark. Your understanding of social issues within the US is null and void. Stick to the European economy, pal.
Jens Roeckendorf
Jens Roeckendorf 5 meses atrás
Very good video! it is a very good description about the Economic and the social cirumstances of the developed world!
Joe Weis
Joe Weis 5 meses atrás
TRUMP DESTROYS EVERYTHING HE TOUCHES
Krist Reid
Krist Reid 3 meses atrás
trump is anti globalism
Karl Gutowski
Karl Gutowski 5 meses atrás
I love listening to old geezers talk about the world ending, because the economic models they learned in school no longer reflect economic reality and they suck at investing. Fucking loser.
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